A new Fox News poll shows the Texas Senate race tied, 49% to 49%, between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
51% to 49% was Talarico's lead in Fox's previous poll. 98% of Democrats back Talarico; 90% of Republicans back Paxton. 30 points is Talarico's margin among Hispanic voters, 64% to 34%. 1.9 points was Paxton's deficit in the RealClearPolitics average before Fox's poll. Why it matters: The seat, held by retiring Sen. John Cornyn, could shape Senate control. Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
Most October polls show Talarico ahead by 2 to 6 points. Fox attributes Paxton's gain to conservatives, rural voters and suburban women.
The story so far 113 steps · since Oct 7 Oct 7–9 10 smaller steps Oct 95:31 PM Polls and Forecasts Point to Democratic Midterm Lead 73 sources Oct 10–14 33 smaller steps Oct 148:39 AM US Inflation Rises to 3.7% in September 75 sources Oct 14–16 31 smaller steps Oct 174:23 AM Violent Protests Sweep France as 1,800 Are Arrested 114 sources Oct 17–18 3 smaller steps Oct 187:39 AM Midterm Polls Debated as Democrats' Support Questioned 59 sources Oct 18–21 28 smaller steps Oct 219:33 PM Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas Senate Race, Poll Shows You are here Oct 22 2 smaller steps Oct 223:55 PM Musk Pours Another $76 Million Into GOP Midterm Push 7 sources Latest
How 12 sources split on this story Bias Ownership
Strong Left Left Lean Left Center Lean Right Right Strong Right
Political Bias
Coverage by lean % of 12 sources
16% 42% 42%
12 sources · 12 articles · 42% Center coverage
Where they split: Coverage differs on whether the tie signals Republicans consolidating or an outlier in polls that mostly favor Talarico.
Center coverage, 5 sources: The center treats the race as a dead heat and places the Fox poll alongside other October surveys.
Left coverage, 2 sources: The left reports the tie as a straight poll result alongside Abbott's lead in the governor's race.
Right coverage, 5 sources: The right sees Paxton's odds tied to Abbott's margin, and a possible Senate-governor split as evidence against a simple blue-wave story.
What’s next: Early voting continues before the Nov. 3 election. Republican pollster Daron Shaw said the race hinges on whether disaffected Republicans turn out for Paxton.
Trump will rally in Lubbock on Tuesday. Will Republicans who backed Cornyn in the primary vote for Paxton? Are Spanish-speaking and rural voters undercounted in Texas polls? 
