Polls and Forecasts Point to Democratic Midterm Lead
Polls show Democrats leading the race for Congress weeks before the midterms. Pollsters say response problems leave real uncertainty in those numbers.
- 49.8% to 41.9%: Democrats' lead in RealClearPolling's generic ballot average.
- 9 to 19 House seats: Cook's projected Democratic gain, enough for a majority.
- 18 House races shifted by Cook from toss-up to lean Democrat Oct. 9.
- 37.6%: Trump's approval in Cook's tracker; Reuters/Ipsos measured 32%.
Why it matters: Control of Congress for Trump's final two years is at stake. Democrats need three House seats and four Senate seats.
- Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority.
- Pew finds Republicans somewhat less likely to answer telephone surveys.
How 29 sources split on this story
Where they split: The dispute is whether polls capture Republican voters accurately, or whether district lines and money will blunt a Democratic national lead.
Center coverage, 10 sources: The center sees Democrats clearly favored but warns that polling errors and turnout models leave the outcome uncertain.
Left coverage, 9 sources: The left sees a Republican Party scrambling to defend once-safe seats as Trump's unpopularity weighs on candidates.
Right coverage, 10 sources: The right sees talk of a blue wave as overstated, pointing to tight Senate polls, district lines and Republican cash.
What’s next: Republicans are moving resources into traditionally red districts and states to defend once-safe seats, CNN reported.
- Cook moved the Kansas Senate race to toss-up.
- $13.5 million: NRCC's cash-on-hand edge over its Democratic counterpart, per FEC filings.
- Has poll weighting fixed past underestimates of Republican support, or overcorrected?
- Will Trump's campaign appearances help or hurt Republican candidates?
- Can Republicans' money advantage offset a national polling deficit in close districts?
