Polls show Democrats competitive in Senate races across states President Trump won easily in 2024. Analysts disagree on whether the surveys are accurate.
Why it matters: If the polls hold, Democrats could take the Senate and House. If they miss as in past cycles, Republicans could keep both.
Where they split: The dispute is whether polls this year undercount Republican voters, as in 2016 and 2020, or are accurate or even understate Democrats.
Left coverage, 21 sources: The left sees strong polls and Republican spending retreats as signs of a Democratic year, while acknowledging polling error is possible.
Right coverage, 19 sources: The right sees polls likely missing Republican voters again, making turnout the deciding factor.
What’s next: Election Day is Nov. 3. Ruffini gives Republicans roughly even odds of holding the Senate.
