SpaceX Stock Drops After Musk's Ambitious AI Plans Fail to Impress.

SpaceX reports second-quarter results after the close on August 4, its first earnings release since pricing at $135 per share in June. The stock closed Friday at $108.37, down more than 50% from its intraday high of $225.64.

• $1.4 trillion market cap rests on a price-to-sales ratio in the 70s.
• $7.72 billion in AI capital expenditures in Q1 2026 alone.
• Short sellers hold roughly $8.3 billion in paper profits since the IPO.
• Q2 revenue consensus sits near $6.9 billion, a projected 68% year-over-year gain.

Why it matters: This is the first chance for public investors to see audited results for SpaceX's three-segment structure, formed after the February 2026 integration of xAI and X. The AI segment alone is spending capital faster than the other two businesses combined.

• Connectivity — the only profitable segment — generated $4.4 billion in operating income during 2025, more than doubling year over year.
• Lock-up expirations beginning August 6 could release a large volume of insider shares into the market.

How 31 sources split on this story

Where they split: Bulls argue the post-IPO selloff is a buying opportunity given Starlink's moat and Starship's potential; bears point to negative free cash flow, heavy debt and an AI spending pace that lacks visible returns.

What’s next: Analysts and investors will focus on Starlink subscriber mix, Starship progress and AI deal renewals.

• Anthropic pays roughly $1.25 billion per month for compute but can exit with 90 days' notice.
• How many insiders will sell when the lock-up expires, and what effect will that have on the stock?
• Will Starship achieve payload delivery to orbit in the second half of 2026 as the IPO prospectus projected?
• When, if ever, will AI infrastructure spending produce measurable returns for SpaceX?