Fastrack · Polls Show Democrats Leading Most Key Senate Races Before Midterms

Democrats lead in five of seven Senate battlegrounds in final New York Times/Siena polls. Two more races are within the margin of error.

53% to 42%: Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers in Michigan.
50% to 43%: James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas.
49% to 44%: Democrats lead in Ohio and Kansas.
48% to 47%: Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson are effectively tied in Iowa.

Why it matters: Democrats must defend all their seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats for a majority. The polls show Democratic leads in states long considered Republican strongholds.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
38% of likely voters in the seven states approve of President Trump's job performance.

The story so far

93 steps · since Oct 7

Oct 7–24
Oct 257:03 AMTrump Calls El-Sayed a Jihadist at Michigan Rally67 sources
Oct 25–27
Oct 276:43 PMSenate Control Could Hang in Limbo for Weeks69 sources
Oct 27–29
Oct 296:45 AMDemocrats Could Win Midterms, Threatening Trump's Agenda82 sources
Oct 29–Nov 1
Nov 112:43 PMHaley Stevens Endorses Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate Race87 sources
Nov 1
Nov 11:57 PMPolls Show Democrats Leading Most Key Senate Races Before MidtermsYou are here
Nov 14:27 PMMichigan Democrats Oust Haley Stevens After Republican Endorsement7 sourcesLatest

How 16 sources split on this story

Source landscape

Factuality

High

Mixed

Low

Strong LeftLeftLean LeftCenterLean RightRightStrong Right

Political Bias

Coverage by lean% of 16 sources

16 sources · 33 articles · 38% Center coverage

Where they split: Coverage splits on whether the polls signal a broad Republican loss or overstate Democratic strength.

Center coverage, 6 sources: The center reports Democratic leads alongside Republican leaders' claims that the polls are wrong.

USA Today2hDemocrats lead Republicans in 5 of 7 Senate battlegrounds, new polls show Forbes17hLatest Polls In 2026 Midterms: Democrats Lead Nearly All Key Senate Races Jerusalem Post4hDemocrats lead in key battleground states ahead of Senate midterms race - NYT poll Newsweek3hJames Talarico Chances of Victory Hit Record High After Best Poll Yet PennLive1hFrom Texas to Maine, Democrats are leading in Senate battlegrounds: Here's what the latest polls show RealClearPolitics1hPoll: Democrats Lead in Key States That Will Decide Senate

Left coverage, 5 sources: The left sees a possible Democratic wave driven by frustration with Trump and the economy.

Raw Story3hLegendary pollster sees major swing in final midterm prediction The New York Times14hDemocrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find Political Wire44mDemocrats Have Double-Digit Lead on Generic Ballot Cleveland.com1hFrom Texas to Maine, Democrats are leading in Senate battlegrounds: Here's what the latest polls show The Boston Globe34mLatest UNH poll shows signs of strength for Rhode Island Democrats

Right coverage, 5 sources: The right reads the polls as a sign of voter dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, including over the Iran war.

Just the News4dPollsters: Gov. Katie Hobbs opening up lead on Biggs Washington Examiner2hDemocrats lead in seven Senate battlegrounds: Poll Daily Mail2hNew poll predicts doomsday scenario for Republicans in all seven toss-up Senate races as Trump eyes scapegoat OutKick3hPoll flashes warning signs for Republicans in 7 battleground Senate races The Epoch Times15hA Look at the South as Midterms Shift

What’s next: Voters go to the polls Nov. 3. The Michigan poll predates Rep. Haley Stevens' Nov. 1 endorsement of Rogers.

Johnson told a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, that the polls are wrong all around the country.
How will Stevens' endorsement of Rogers affect the Michigan race?
Will independent turnout match what the polls assume?