Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Rises Slightly in September

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.6% in September from a year earlier. That is up from 3.4% in August.

0.5% monthly rise in September, the highest since May.
3.1% core inflation, excluding food and energy, up from 3% in August.
$100-plus oil since the Iran war, up from below $70 before it.
6.3% annual wholesale inflation in September, the highest since 2022.

Why it matters: Inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes fell 0.3% in September, even as spending stayed strong. Households appear to be drawing on savings and credit.

3.8% personal savings rate, the lowest since October 2022.
Services such as shipping, hotels and utilities rose quickly, a sign of broadening price pressure.

The story so far

5 steps · since Oct 28

Oct 2810:21 AMFed Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns64 sources
Oct 282:55 PMWarsh Plans to Eliminate Some Fed Rate-Setting Meetings5 sources
Oct 297:41 AMFed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Rises Slightly in SeptemberYou are here
Oct 298:37 AMUS Economy Grows 3.4% on Consumer Spending, AI Investment36 sources
Oct 298:43 AMFed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Accelerates in October3 sourcesLatest

How 14 sources split on this story

Source landscape

Factuality

High

Mixed

Low

Strong LeftLeftLean LeftCenterLean RightRightStrong Right

Political Bias

Coverage by lean% of 14 sources

14 sources · 18 articles · 64% Center coverage

Where they split: Coverage differs on emphasis: whether to lead with gas prices and the Fed, or with pressure on Trump before the midterms.

Center coverage, 9 sources: The center focuses on prices spreading beyond energy and falling household incomes as the election nears.

Fortune15h'The inflation outlook has become more concerning': Incomes declined 0.3% and consumer prices jumped 3.6% in September as midterms loom | Fortune The National Desk14hInflation heats up as rising costs threaten to spread beyond energy IBTimes15hSeptember's Inflation Was in Line With Expectations. Odds of a Rate Hike Dropped But Remain High.MarketWatch18hConsumer spending flattens out after inflation surge abc27 (WHTM)18hFederal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation rose slightly in September Japan Times6hTokyo inflation exceeds BOJ’s 2% target before rate decision PBS NewsHour14hInflation heats up again, days before midterm elections The Hill18hFederal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation rose slightly in September WSAV Savannah18hFederal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation rose slightly in September

Left coverage, 2 sources: The left frames the data around the midterms, with cost of living dominating voters' concerns.

The Independent16hInflation heats up again, data shows, days before midterm elections where cost of living dominates Raw Story13hTrump hit with brutal midterm warning as new numbers show things 'getting worse'

Right coverage, 3 sources: The right ties the increase to high gas prices and the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes.

New York Post16hKey inflation gauge heats up thanks to high gas prices — day after Fed hits pause on rate hikes Just the News1dInflation ticked up in September, driven largely by rising gas prices, data shows ZeroHedge18hFed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Surges In September As Soaring Energy Costs Drags Americans' Savings Rate To 4-Year Lows

What’s next: The Fed held its rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters wanted an immediate hike.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gave no guidance on next steps. Markets expect a quarter-point hike in December.
Midterm elections are less than a week away. Polls show voters giving Trump poor marks on prices.
Will record diesel and jet fuel costs pass through to consumer prices?
Can consumer spending hold up as real incomes and savings fall?
Will higher rates slow AI-driven investment demand, or leave it unaffected?