Fastrack · UK Borrowing Tops Forecasts Ahead of Budget

UK government borrowing reached £24.5 billion in September, above forecasts. Public sector net debt passed £3 trillion for the first time.

£1.9B above the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast for the month.
£10.9B in central government debt interest, the highest September on record.
94% debt-to-GDP ratio, down 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier.
3.5% inflation in September, an 11-month high driven partly by fuel costs.

Why it matters: Rising borrowing costs, linked to conflict in the Middle East, are shrinking Healey's fiscal headroom. That limits what his first Budget can offer households.

Matt Swannell of the Item Club estimates £10B to £15B of margin remains.
Borrowing for the first six months stayed below last year's level, but trailed plans.

The story so far

8 steps · since Oct 13

Oct 13Healey Plans £2bn Bank Tax Hike in First Budget5 sources
Oct 15Bank Shares Fall on Expected Budget Tax Rise6 sources
Oct 19
Oct 196:09 AMUK Inflation Rises to 3.5% on Higher Fuel Costs9 sources
Oct 19–20
Oct 207:39 AMUK Borrowing Tops Forecasts Ahead of BudgetYou are hereLatest

How 8 sources split on this story

Source landscape

Factuality

High

Mixed

Low

Strong LeftLeftLean LeftCenterLean RightRightStrong Right

Political Bias

Coverage by lean% of 8 sources

8 sources · 11 articles · 50% Right coverage

Where they split: Coverage divides over whether the figures reflect global cost pressures on a stable debt ratio or a Labour government losing control of the finances.

Center3 sources

Reuters1dUK borrows more than expected again, debt hits £3 trillion BBC News1dInflation and borrowing data illustrate chancellor's Budget challenge Bloomberg1dUK Borrowing Exceeds Forecast in Final Data Before Budget

Left coverage, 1 sources: The left sees a government squeezed by global borrowing costs, with tight finances limiting a cautious first Budget.

The Independent1dGovernment borrowing rises above forecasts to £24.5bn ahead of Budget

Right coverage, 4 sources: The right sees record debt, rising inflation and a likely tax-raising Budget as signs of a Labour government that has lost control of the economy.

Daily Mail1dLabour's winter misery: UK debt mountain tops £3TRILLION for first time ever ahead of grim 'tax-raising' Budget - as inflation surges to 3.5% with interest rate pain looming Wall Street Journal1dU.K. Government on Track to Cut Borrowing Ahead of Budget The Sun1dUK’s debt hits over £3trillion for the first time just days before the Budget The Telegraph1dInflation jumps in run-up to Healey’s maiden Budget

What’s next: Healey presents his first Budget next Wednesday. He is expected to raise taxes on banks.

Healey ruled out raising capital gains tax.
Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith called for cuts to welfare and what he called wasteful spending.
How large will any bank tax increase be, and how much will it raise?
Will the Bank of England raise rates in both November and December?