Paxton Blames Trump, Iran War for Campaign Struggles in Leaked Audio

Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas, told donors privately last month that the Iran war and fuel prices are his campaign's biggest problem. The remarks, recorded at a September 24 fundraiser in Washington, D.C., were obtained by Axios.

• Diesel averaged $6.30 a gallon as of Wednesday, up from $3.68 in October 2025.
• Gas prices have risen roughly 44% to 50% since the Iran war began in February.
• Grocery costs have jumped 3.4% on average since January 2025.
• Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico by 6 points in two recent polls.

Why it matters: The audio is the third set of leaked recordings from the same event. Earlier recordings captured Paxton saying the Trump midterm convention in Dallas hurt Republican numbers and that campaign control is "all coming from D.C."

• Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race a toss-up; a Talarico win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since the 1980s.

How 27 sources split on this story

Where they split: The factual dispute is whether Paxton's private remarks contradict his public posture: he told Fox News in March that Trump "did the right thing" with the Iran operation, while the audio shows him calling the war his campaign's central liability.

What’s next: Republicans plan to spend $150 million to $200 million on the Texas Senate race, with the Senate Leadership Fund's Texas PAC reserving over $100 million in TV advertising.

• Paxton's campaign dismissed all three recordings as a non-story, saying Trump "is doing everything he can to bring prices down."
• Whether the series of leaks — all from the same attendee at one private event — will shift Republican spending or strategy in Texas before November 3.
• Whether Trump's San Antonio rally appearance alongside Paxton, held hours after the audio was published, affected either candidate's standing with voters.