Forecasters Favor Democrats to Win House and Senate

One month before the November 3 midterms, polls show Democrats leading or tied in five Republican-held Senate states. Every House seat and 35 Senate contests are on the ballot.

• 8.3 points: Democrats' current lead on the national generic ballot, per RealClearPolitics.
• Democrats need four net Senate gains to take the chamber majority.
• $400 million: Trump's MAGA PAC pledge to support Republicans in the midterms.
• 29 percent of Americans name economic issues their top political concern, per Pew Research.

Why it matters: Voter dissatisfaction with the economy, inflation, and the Iran war has expanded the Senate battleground into states Republicans once considered safe.

• Annual inflation sits at 3.4 percent; gasoline costs have risen roughly 25 percent over the past year, driven largely by the Iran war.
• 57 percent of likely voters across five key states disapprove of Trump's job performance, per the New York Times/Siena poll.

How 22 sources split on this story

Where they split: Whether current polling reflects a genuine Democratic wave or systematically overstates Democratic turnout as it has in recent cycles.

What’s next: Trump is touring Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Nebraska to energize Republican voters.

• The Senate Leadership Fund is spending $100 million in Texas alone to defend Ken Paxton.
• Four major forecasters — FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, and VoteHub — continue updating race ratings as late money moves.
• Will Republican turnout operations close the gap that polling currently shows in Texas, Iowa, and Ohio?
• How much will redistricting gains offset the Democratic generic-ballot advantage in House races?