Poll shows Latino voters cooling on Trump ahead of midterms.
Latino voters prefer Democratic control of Congress over Republican by 59% to 35%, according to an NBC News/Telemundo poll of 800 registered Latino voters conducted Sept. 21–28. That 24-point margin is double what Democrats held among Latino voters at this point before the 2024 election.
- 27% of Latino voters approve of Trump's overall job performance; 69% disapprove.
- 78% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living.
- 67% say Trump's immigration enforcement has gone too far; 22% back his approach.
- 33% of Latino voters rank inflation and cost of living as their top issue.
Why it matters: Republicans drew heavily Latino congressional districts in Florida and Texas based on 2024 results. Many of those seats are now competitive as Latino opinion has shifted.
- Democrats hold a 21-point edge over Republicans on handling the economy among Latino voters — a reversal from Trump's 4-point lead over Kamala Harris on the same question in 2024.
- Nearly one-fifth of Latino Trump 2024 voters say they no longer prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.
How 9 sources split on this story
Where they split: The central dispute is whether Republican losses with Latino voters reflect a durable realignment or a temporary response to Trump and current economic conditions.
Center coverage, 3 sources: The center presents the shift as a significant data point for both parties, noting it doubles the 2024 Democratic margin while remaining well below Democrats' 2018 advantage.
Left coverage, 4 sources: The left frames the poll as evidence of serious damage to the Republican coalition, highlighting economic pain and deportation fears as drivers of a potentially decisive reversal.
Right coverage, 2 sources: The right acknowledges the swing but emphasizes that GOP support among Latino voters still exceeds pre-2024 levels, and quotes Trump dismissing the polls as inaccurate.
What’s next: Competitive House and statewide races in Texas, Nevada, and Florida will test the shift's magnitude.
- Democrats need three wins from 19 toss-up House races to claim a majority, per current projections.
- Will Latino voter sentiment remain this negative toward Republicans by Election Day, or will it soften?
- How much of the shift is opposition to Trump personally versus a broader move back to the Democratic Party?
- Do Latino voters' concerns translate into higher turnout, or does enthusiasm remain lower than raw preference numbers suggest?