Brazilians Head to Polls in High-Stakes Election.

Brazil votes Sunday in a presidential race pitting 80-year-old incumbent Lula against 45-year-old senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Polls point to a tight first round and an October 25 runoff.

• 43.1% first-round support for Lula vs. 38% for Bolsonaro, per a CNT/MDA poll.
• 47.3% to 43.1%: Lula's simulated runoff lead, narrowed from a prior survey.
• 27-year prison sentence: what Jair Bolsonaro is serving for plotting a coup after 2022.
• 40% tariff hike on Brazil: Trump's response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup-plot trial last year.

Why it matters: The stakes extend beyond the two candidates. The winner will nominate four Supreme Court justices and set Brazil's course on crime, debt, Amazon policy, and relations with Washington.

• Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father and appoint five conservative Supreme Court justices if elected.
• 31% of voters cite violence as their top concern; 20% say corruption; 19% say the economy, per a September Quaest survey.

How 26 sources split on this story

Where they split: The core dispute is whether Brazil's democratic institutions are worth defending as built, or are rotten and in need of sharp change.

What’s next: Brazil uses electronic voting machines and typically reports results within hours of polls closing.

• If the race goes to a runoff October 25, both candidates will shift focus to winning undecided voters.
• Whether any candidate can clear 50% in the first round and avoid a runoff.
• How Trump's visible involvement in the campaign will affect Brazilian voter sentiment on Election Day.
• What a Bolsonaro victory would mean in practice for Jair Bolsonaro's prison sentence and the Supreme Court.