Democrats Hold Biggest Lead Yet in Congressional Race
Democrats hold a 9-point lead over Republicans in the race for Congress, according to NBC News polling averages released September 25. Trump's approval rating stands at 39%, down from 50% at the start of his second term.
- 52% of Americans prefer Democratic control of Congress; 43% prefer Republican.
- Independents favor Democrats by 16 points in the congressional ballot average.
- Cook Political Report projects Democrats gain 5 to 15 House seats, reaching 220 to 230.
- Per capita real disposable income shrank 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: Voter frustration centers on the economy, high gas prices tied to the Iran war, and rising food costs. Independent voters, who most often decide midterms, have moved steadily toward Democrats since fall 2025.
- Political scientist Seth Masket's model links per capita real disposable income growth to midterm outcomes. The current negative reading matches conditions before the large Democratic gains of 1958 and 1974.
- Democrats currently hold 215 House seats, meaning a modest pickup would hand them the majority.
How 18 sources split on this story
Where they split: The central dispute is whether Democratic polling leads will hold in districts Trump won in 2024, where Republican ad spending is concentrated and polling margins are often within the margin of error.
Center coverage, 2 sources: The center presents the polling lead and analyst forecasts as significant but notes the Senate path remains difficult and many key races fall in territory that favored Trump in 2024.
Left coverage, 10 sources: The left frames this as a structural referendum on Trump — driven by falling living standards, an unpopular war, and an economy that has broken his core 2024 promises — making a Democratic wave likely but not guaranteed.
NBC News12hInside NBC News’ polling averages: Democrats enjoy biggest lead yet in the race for Congress
The Independent2hPresident Trump has reached ‘record hatred’ polling numbers, analysts say
Mediaite3hCook Political Report Gives Major Update on House Races — But It’s Not All Good News for Dems
Political Wire3hThe 2026 Election Could Be the GOP’s Worst This Century
Raw Story3hGlaring signs spotted GOP barreling toward ‘worst midterm’ of the centuryCleCleveland.com7hPolling expert reveals Republicans ‘best hope’ for the 2026 midterms
CNN4hWhy the 2026 election could be the worst midterm for the GOP this century
The New York Times4hBracing for Midterm Losses, Congress Tries Pre-election Pivot...
Vox30mWhy Democratic Senate hopes are rising
Independent Journal Review7h2026 Election Tracker — Live Map, Polls & Betting Markets
Newsmax4hCook Shifts 15 House Races Toward Dems
The Daily Caller1hMajor Midterm Forecaster Delivers Grim Update For Republicans
The Epoch Times22h13 House Races Tighten 6 Weeks Before Midterms, Election Forecaster SaysTRSThe Right Scoop3hBREAKING: Decision Desk predicting Republicans to lose another Senate seat...
The Washington Times6hDemocrats in position to flip 5-15 House seats, retake majority, per Cook Political ReportWhat’s next: Republicans are targeting Democratic candidates with heavy ad spending in Trump-won districts.
- Cook Political Report rates 22 House seats as toss-ups, including clusters in Pennsylvania and Florida.
- Democrats need a net four Senate seats to take that chamber, with razor-thin polling in nearly a dozen races.
- Will Republican candidates successfully distance themselves from Trump in districts he won by double digits?
- Can Republican ad spending move voters in key districts where attack ads have not yet shifted polling?
- Does the historical outlier of 2022 — minimal losses despite negative real disposable income — suggest the model overstates Democratic gains?