Democrats Hold Biggest Lead Yet in Congressional Race
Democrats hold a 9-point lead over Republicans in the race for Congress, according to NBC News polling averages released September 25. Trump's approval rating stands at 39%, down from 50% at the start of his second term.
- 52% of Americans prefer Democratic control of Congress; 43% prefer Republican.
- Independents favor Democrats by 16 points in the congressional ballot average.
- Cook Political Report projects Democrats gain 5 to 15 House seats, reaching 220 to 230.
- Per capita real disposable income shrank 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: Voter frustration centers on the economy, high gas prices tied to the Iran war, and rising food costs. Independent voters, who most often decide midterms, have moved steadily toward Democrats since fall 2025.
- Political scientist Seth Masket's model links per capita real disposable income growth to midterm outcomes. The current negative reading matches conditions before the large Democratic gains of 1958 and 1974.
- Democrats currently hold 215 House seats, meaning a modest pickup would hand them the majority.
How 37 sources split on this story
Where they split: The central dispute is whether Democratic polling leads will hold in districts Trump won in 2024, where Republican ad spending is concentrated and polling margins are often within the margin of error.
Center coverage, 11 sources: The center presents the polling lead and analyst forecasts as significant but notes the Senate path remains difficult and many key races fall in territory that favored Trump in 2024.
Left coverage, 15 sources: The left frames this as a structural referendum on Trump — driven by falling living standards, an unpopular war, and an economy that has broken his core 2024 promises — making a Democratic wave likely but not guaranteed.
What’s next: Republicans are targeting Democratic candidates with heavy ad spending in Trump-won districts.
- Cook Political Report rates 22 House seats as toss-ups, including clusters in Pennsylvania and Florida.
- Democrats need a net four Senate seats to take that chamber, with razor-thin polling in nearly a dozen races.
- Will Republican candidates successfully distance themselves from Trump in districts he won by double digits?
- Can Republican ad spending move voters in key districts where attack ads have not yet shifted polling?
- Does the historical outlier of 2022 — minimal losses despite negative real disposable income — suggest the model overstates Democratic gains?
