Democrats Lead in Midterm Polls as Trump Looms Large
Registered voters prefer Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans 53% to 41%, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Wednesday. The survey of 1,280 registered voters was conducted September 14-15 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
- 45% of registered voters say their congressional vote is primarily to oppose Trump.
- Independents favor Democrats by 25 points on the generic ballot.
- 53% of voters strongly disapprove of Trump — the highest share recorded across either of his terms.
- Republicans hold an 8-point net favorability edge over Democrats, per a separate NBC News poll.
Why it matters: Trump asked voters at a midterm convention in Dallas to "pretend" he is on the ballot. The poll suggests that framing is generating more opposition votes than support votes.
- 76% of Democrats say they care a great deal about who controls Congress, versus 67% of Republicans — a gap that could affect turnout.
- Democrats now lead Republicans on economy (42%-38%), gas prices (40%-27%), foreign policy (42%-36%), and immigration (41%-38%) — issues where Republicans held advantages in early 2024.
How 41 sources split on this story
Where they split: The central dispute is whether Democratic polling leads reflect a durable wave or are overstated and will narrow by Election Day.
Center coverage, 16 sources: The center frames the poll as a snapshot of a nationalized election driven by Trump's approval ratings, noting the enthusiasm gap and historical patterns without predicting a definitive outcome.
Left coverage, 15 sources: The left frames the poll as evidence Republicans are in denial about an oncoming wave, pointing to worsening numbers despite GOP ad spending and dismissing claims that polls will tighten as wishful thinking.
Right coverage, 10 sources: The right frames the poll by emphasizing that Democrats remain deeply unpopular as a brand and that Republican polling has historically tightened closer to Election Day, leaving the outcome uncertain.
What’s next: Early voting is already underway in several states, including Virginia and North Carolina, where absentee ballots went out September 4.
- Republican Senate nominees in Iowa and Michigan reversed positions this week to oppose the Iran war and call for gas tax suspension.
- Will Republican candidates who distance themselves from Trump's positions lose base turnout, gain independents, or both?
- Gas prices drove much of the polling shift — if prices stabilize or fall before Election Day, how much does the Democratic lead shrink?
- Do the 2025 gubernatorial results — where polls underestimated Democrats — or the 2024 general results — where polls underestimated Republicans — better predict 2026 accuracy?
