El Niño Projected to Cause 450,000 Deaths in Six Months
The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects 451,000 deaths above normal heat-mortality levels during the current El Niño period, which runs through February 2027.
- 239,000 of those deaths are projected in the six months ending February 2027.
- 1.2°C above-normal land temperatures are forecast, producing 44% more extremely hot days.
- 66,800 additional deaths are projected across Sahel countries — Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.
- 3,500 additional deaths are projected in the United States.
Why it matters: The study covered more than 24,000 regions and compared El Niño-driven temperatures against a three-decade baseline to isolate excess mortality.
- Poorer, already-hot countries face the steepest risk because they have less access to air conditioning, reliable water, and functioning health systems, co-author Michael Greenstone said.
- Researchers say these temperature conditions may mirror what climate change makes normal roughly 20 years from now.
How 6 sources split on this story
Left coverage, 2 sources: The left emphasizes climate change as the amplifying force behind El Niño's danger and frames the death toll as a preview of the harm a warming planet will routinely inflict on poorer nations.
Right coverage, 1 sources: The right leads with the scale of the scientific prediction and highlights the researchers' call for concrete, testable adaptations — early warning systems, cooling technology — rather than foregrounding climate policy.
What’s next: Authors call for heat-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, and expanded hospital capacity in high-risk regions.
- The group says it will release updated, interactive forecasts to help decision-makers target interventions in real time.
- Abhiyant Tiwari of NRDC India, who was not involved in the study, said securing funding to implement plans already in place remains a central challenge.
- How much of the projected toll can be averted if governments act on the recommended measures, and on what timeline?
- The El Niño is expected to end by February, but researchers say its heat effects could extend into next summer — how far does that extend the mortality risk?