Merz Fights to Keep Coalition After State Election Losses

Germany's AfD led exit polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday, with 37.0% against the governing Social Democrats' 35.5%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU polled at 5.5%, near the 5% threshold for entering the state parliament.

• 5.5% would be the CDU's worst state election result since 1949.
• 37.0% for the AfD; 35.5% for the Social Democrats, per ARD exit poll.
• Berlin votes the same day; the CDU risks losing the mayor's office there.
• Two weeks ago, AfD fell just short of a majority in the Saxony-Anhalt state vote.

Why it matters: The AfD's rise and the CDU's slide together test how long Merz can govern effectively. Other parties have ruled out forming coalitions with the AfD, meaning a first-place finish may not translate to power.

• Calls to replace Merz have emerged from within his own party over the past two weeks.
• Merz canceled a planned UN General Assembly trip to New York amid the political pressure.

How 49 sources split on this story

Where they split: Coverage agrees on the numbers but frames the AfD's rise differently: one outlet centers the electoral mechanics, while the other emphasizes what AfD gains mean for Merz's political survival.

What’s next: Final tallies for both states are expected Sunday night.

• Merz has said he intends to serve out his full term as chancellor.
• Will the CDU clear 5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and retain any seats in the state parliament?
• If the CDU loses both races badly, will named party figures move publicly to challenge Merz's leadership?