Pentagon Blacklist Lingers as Irritant in Trump-Xi Trade Talks

Trump has framed the AI race in absolute terms while preparing to host Xi Jinping this week. Some of the researchers driving America's lead came from China — and a measurable share are going back.

• 87 of 100 tracked top-tier Chinese-origin AI researchers remained at US institutions through 2025.
• 47% of top-tier AI authors held Chinese undergraduate degrees in 2022, up from 29% in 2019.
• The share of those researchers working at US institutions fell from 59% to 42% over the same period.
• About 50 tenure-track scholars of Chinese descent left US universities for China in early 2025 alone.

Why it matters: Who trains and retains top AI researchers shapes which country leads the technology. The talent pipeline and the chip supply chain are two sides of the same competition.

• Authors originally from China contribute as much to American AI output as US-born authors, Carnegie Endowment researchers Matt Sheehan and Sophie Zhuang found.
• Huawei's Ascend chip demand in China is now exceeding supply, signaling China is building a domestic AI ecosystem that does not require American technology.

How 48 sources split on this story

Where they split: Both outlets agree the competition is real, but differ on whether restrictive export and visa policies are protecting American advantage or accelerating its erosion.

What’s next: Trump and Xi meet September 24; AI governance and a bilateral dialogue framework are central agenda items.

• The Trump administration's approach — maintaining targeted export controls while opening licensing for some chip sales — is being tested against Huawei's expanding chip roadmap.
• Will the bilateral AI dialogue agreed upon at the May Beijing meeting be folded into the September economic sessions or remain stalled?
• How many more elite non-Chinese researchers will leave US institutions if the current environment persists?
• Can targeted export controls slow China's domestic chip progress, or has that window already closed?