Fed Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate Wednesday for the first time since 2023. Traders put the probability of a quarter-point hike at 90%.
- A quarter-point hike would push the benchmark rate to roughly 3.75%–4.00%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.041%, a 19-year high, earlier this week.
- Brent crude is up about 19% since the start of September on Middle East supply disruptions.
- Core inflation reached 3.3% in July, up from 3% before the Iran war began.
Why it matters: Higher inflation, driven partly by oil prices above $100 a barrel, has narrowed Warsh's options. Not hiking risks a repeat of July, when markets pushed long-term rates higher after the Fed held steady.
- Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury and have already risen alongside it.
- Consumer sentiment is near record lows; more Americans are behind on mortgages and car loans than at any point in the past decade, according to the New York Fed.
How 96 sources split on this story
Where they split: The core dispute is whether Warsh will signal one cautious hike or the start of a sustained tightening cycle — and how much pressure from the White House factors into that choice.
Center coverage, 46 sources: The center focuses on the institutional stakes: Warsh's credibility with markets, the mechanics of the rate decision, and the narrow path between political pressure and economic necessity.
Left coverage, 25 sources: The left frames the story around economic risk to ordinary Americans — rising debt burdens, weakening consumer spending, and the danger that the Fed could overtighten and trigger a recession.
Right coverage, 25 sources: The right emphasizes the political tension between the Fed and the White House, noting Trump's demands for lower rates and adviser Kevin Hassett's warning against hiking close to midterm elections.
What’s next: The Fed releases quarterly economic projections Wednesday alongside the rate decision. Those projections will include a benchmark rate forecast through next year.
- Wall Street futures currently price in three total hikes: September, December, and March.
- How many hikes will Warsh pursue if inflation remains elevated but the economy weakens?
- Would Trump take action against Warsh if the Fed continues raising rates against his wishes?
- Could a slowdown in AI-driven investment tip the economy toward recession before inflation is tamed?



































































