Social Security Recipients May See Largest Raise in Three Years

August inflation data brought the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment into sharper focus. The CPI-W, the index used to calculate the COLA, rose 3.5% over the past 12 months.

• 3.5%–3.6%: the range analysts now project for the 2027 COLA.
• 75.7 million people receive Social Security, SSI, or both, per SSA data.
• A 3.6% increase would raise the average monthly benefit by roughly $75.
• 2026's COLA was 2.8%; the 2023 adjustment was 8.7%.

Why it matters: The COLA determines how much benefits rise each January. Analysts and advocates warn that even an above-average adjustment may not fully offset costs facing retirees.

• Medicare Part B premiums, deducted directly from Social Security checks, have historically consumed much of each year's COLA increase.
• Social Security's trust fund is projected to run dry by end of 2032, which trustees say would trigger an estimated 22% benefits cut under current law.

How 6 sources split on this story

Where they split: Projections differ slightly by source: AARP forecasts 3.6%, while the Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson project 3.5%, with oil price volatility cited as the key wild card.

What’s next: September CPI data publishes October 14, completing the three-month average that determines the final COLA.

• The SSA will announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14.
• Will September oil prices push the final COLA above or below current 3.5%–3.6% projections?
• Will Congress act on Social Security solvency before the trust fund depletion deadline arrives?