Merz Faces Coalition Hurdles After German Election Shock

The AfD finished first in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday with 43.8% of the vote, its highest share in any German state election. The CDU, which held the state premiership, collapsed to 17.2%.

• 39 AfD seats were won; 43 are needed for a majority.
• 17.2% was the CDU's final result, down from 37% at the prior election.
• 9% of voters approved of Chancellor Merz's performance, per exit polling.
• AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said the party is now targeting 40% nationally; it polls at roughly 28%.

Why it matters: For 13 years, mainstream German parties have refused any cooperation that would let the AfD take executive power. That strategy now faces its stiffest test yet.

• A first AfD state government would be a major step toward national power the party is openly seeking.
• Two more state elections on September 20 could extend or deepen the pressure on the CDU and its coalition partners.

How 23 sources split on this story

Where they split: The core dispute is whether any path to AfD-led government is legitimate — or whether blocking it by any available coalition is democratically justified.

What’s next: Coalition talks are underway. The AfD is seeking partners; all major parties have publicly refused cooperation.

• AfD's Ulrich Siegmund said he would accept only a formal majority coalition, not a minority arrangement.
• AfD senior MP Maximilian Krah said some CDU politicians in Saxony-Anhalt are considering crossing to support an AfD government.
• Will any CDU members break ranks and back an AfD-led government, and if so how many?
• Can the BSW find a procedural path that lets the AfD govern without formally joining a coalition?
• Does the result accelerate pressure on Chancellor Merz to resign before the September 20 elections?