GOP Operatives Fear Trump Convention Will Backfire

The Republican National Committee is staging an unprecedented two-night midterm convention in Dallas, betting that Trump's presence can reverse the party's predicted losses in November.

• The RNC reported a record $130.3 million cash on hand at the end of July.
• The DNC reported roughly $16 million at the same time, plus nearly $18 million in debt.
• Dallas estimates it will spend roughly $2.5 million on security and related services.
• Most congressional Republicans are paying roughly $25,000 each to attend.

Why it matters: The convention is designed to frame November's midterms as a referendum on Trump, even though his name will not appear on any ballot. Traditionally, the president's party loses seats in midterm elections.

• Many candidates in tight races have declined to attend, citing time away from the campaign trail.
• GOP strategist Charlie Black said the president's approval rating is a liability and candidates are better off keeping voter focus on local issues.

How 69 sources split on this story

Where they split: The core dispute is whether Trump's high-profile presence will energize Republican base voters enough to offset the risk of tying vulnerable candidates to an unpopular president.

What’s next: Senate Majority Leader John Thune will attend but is not on the speaker lineup, following months of public clashes with Trump over the filibuster and voter ID legislation.

• Trump told Punchbowl News he declined to explicitly endorse Thune for another term as Senate GOP leader.
• Paxton is running neck-and-neck with Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race the convention is partly meant to boost.
• Whether Trump's convention appearances will drive turnout among low- and mid-propensity voters or further depress enthusiasm among swing-district Republicans.
• Whether Thune's absence from the stage signals a lasting rift with Trump that could affect Senate leadership after November.
• Whether the convention produces measurable fundraising or polling gains for Paxton before Election Day.