New Hampshire Democrats Face Unexpected Primary Challenge to Senate Seat
New Hampshire holds its Senate primary Tuesday, with Rep. Chris Pappas the expected Democratic nominee to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. General election polls show the race a statistical tie.
- 47% to 34%: Pappas' lead over Manzur in the latest UNH poll.
- 98% chance of winning: Pappas' odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
- 45% to 43%: Sununu's lead over Pappas in the same UNH general election poll.
- New Hampshire backed Harris by roughly 3 points in 2024.
Why it matters: Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority. Losing New Hampshire would erase a hard-fought pickup elsewhere.
- Sununu served in the Senate 2003–2009 and comes from a family that produced two New Hampshire governors.
- Kathy Sullivan, former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair, said national Democratic spending has not prioritized the state.
How 17 sources split on this story
Where they split: The core dispute is whether Pappas is a strong enough general election candidate: his campaign has sent fundraising emails saying 'We're losing,' while prediction markets and several polls still favor him.
Associated Press9hNew Hampshire voters pick nominees as Sen. Shaheen’s exit sparks a scramble for key seatsKSAKSAT 12 San Antonio1dAP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Hampshire’s state primary
Newsweek15hChris Pappas vs. Karishma Manzur—Final polls, odds in New Hampshire primary
Reuters3hNew Hampshire primary kicks off battle for one of nation's key open Senate seats
The Hill3hNew Hampshire Senate race tightens, Rhode Island governor on track to lose: 5 primaries to watch
USA Today6hSununu, Pappas both face tests in quest for New Hampshire US Senate seatLeft coverage, 6 sources: The left frames the race as a warning sign for Democrats — Pappas ran a low-energy campaign, the DSA primary challenge exposed weaknesses, and the general election could slip away if the party doesn't pay attention.
MSNBC3hWhy the road to House and Senate majorities runs through New Hampshire
Political Wire2hNew Hampshire Holds Key Senate Primary
Al Jazeera2hWhat to watch in the US’s New Hampshire and Rhode Island primary elections
CBS News3hNew Hampshire voters choose nominees for open Senate seat with Shaheen's retirement, and more races to watch today
NBC News4hNew Hampshire primaries test Trump and the leftTBGThe Boston Globe4hA primer to New Hampshire's wildest primary contest this yearRight coverage, 5 sources: The right frames the race as a genuine Republican pickup opportunity, emphasizing Sununu's name recognition, recent polling ties, and Democratic anxiety about a state they expected to hold easily.
The Epoch Times13hNew Hampshire Primary: Voters to Set Senate, House, and Governor Matchups
Fox News4hKey swing state voters to settle dueling Senate primary fights in crucial open-seat race
Just the News13hNew Hampshire voters pick nominees in crowded races following incumbents' departures
RedState17hDemocrats Officially Hit the Panic Button in New Hampshire Senate Race
Washington Examiner2hSununu and Shaheen look to keep political dynasties alive in New HampshireWhat’s next: Tuesday's primary results set the general election matchup.
- No public polls have tested Manzur against Sununu in a general election.
- Would Manzur, if she won the primary, be more or less competitive than Pappas against Sununu in November?
- Will national Democratic outside spending increase in New Hampshire before Election Day?