NOAA Warns El Niño Could Reach Historic Intensity
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave the current El Niño a 69% chance of surpassing all prior events in records going back to 1950. The agency also put the odds above 90% that it will reach 'very strong' status this fall and winter.
- 3.6 degrees above average: current sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
- 2.5°C above average is the anomaly NOAA forecasters expect at the event's peak.
- 1982-83 El Niño was the prior intensity record-holder; this event is forecast to exceed it.
- Previous record El Niños cost $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in global income losses.
Why it matters: The combination of record El Niño intensity and a warmer-than-ever baseline climate creates conditions with no historical precedent, raising the likelihood of extreme heat, flooding, and drought worldwide.
- 2027 is described as virtually certain to set the record for the hottest year globally; 2026 may as well.
- Dartmouth geography associate professor Justin Mankin said current forecasts suggest this could be the costliest El Niño on record.
How 5 sources split on this story
Center coverage, 2 sources: The center focuses on the NOAA forecast itself, centering economic costs and practical U.S. weather impacts while quoting agency scientists on what is and is not atypical about this event.
Left coverage, 3 sources: The left frames this as a climate-change story, emphasizing that human-caused warming amplifies El Niño and makes its impacts a 'wild card' unlike anything previously recorded.
What’s next: The event is expected to keep strengthening through year-end, with peak influence on Northern Hemisphere weather arriving in fall and winter.
- Typical U.S. impacts include wetter conditions across the southern tier and a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.
- How much will the record-warm climate background amplify El Niño's regional impacts beyond historical patterns?
- Will the economic damage exceed that of the 1997-98 event, and which regions will bear the largest costs?