Michele Tafoya Wins Minnesota GOP Senate Primary

Minnesota set its November Senate matchup Tuesday. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig in the Democratic primary, and Michele Tafoya won the Republican contest.

• 59% of the Democratic primary vote went to Flanagan; Craig received 39%.
• 53% of Republican primary votes went to Tafoya in a nine-candidate field.
• Craig raised $12.7 million to Flanagan's $6.6 million heading into primary day.
• Prediction markets gave Democrats a roughly 93% chance of winning in November.

Why it matters: The seat has been Democratic since 2002. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, would be the first Native American woman elected to the Senate if she wins.

• Immigration is expected to dominate the general election campaign.
• A federal fraud scandal linked to a COVID-era nutrition program — with estimated losses between $250 million and $1 billion — gives Republicans an attack line against Flanagan's running mate, outgoing Gov. Tim Walz.

How 39 sources split on this story

Where they split: Whether Flanagan's progressive profile strengthens or weakens Democrats in a state where federal immigration enforcement already turned fatal is the central dispute heading into the fall.

What’s next: Senate Leadership Fund has not yet reserved fall ad time in Minnesota, signaling Republican uncertainty about the race.

• NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott urged Republicans not to overlook Tafoya as a general-election candidate.
• Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report both rate the seat Likely Democratic.
• Can Tafoya's name recognition and the fraud scandal close a gap that polling and prediction markets currently put at six to seven points?
• Will Senate Republican outside groups commit serious ad spending in Minnesota before the fall?